NEWS

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The precious metals market finds itself at a pivotal moment as gold prices consolidate within an increasingly narrow trading range, setting the stage for what could be a significant directional breakout in the coming sessions. This technical standoff occurs against the backdrop of renewed bullish sentiment from major financial institutions, with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) recently raising its ambitious price target for the yellow metal to an average of $3,600 per ounce for both 2025 and 2026.

The convergence of technical patterns and fundamental forecasting creates a compelling narrative for gold investors and traders who have watched the precious metal navigate a complex landscape of monetary policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and evolving market dynamics throughout the year. As gold approaches what technical analysts describe as a critical inflection point, the alignment of chart patterns with institutional price projections suggests that the next major move in gold could be substantial and sustained.

Breakout Scenarios: Bulls vs Bears

Technical analysts have mapped out two primary scenarios that could unfold as gold’s consolidation pattern reaches its inevitable resolution. The probability of each outcome depends largely on how broader market forces interact with the established technical levels in the coming sessions.

The Bullish Scenario envisions a decisive daily close above the critical $3,360 resistance level, which would immediately trigger initial upside targets. The first objective in such a breakout would be the July 16 high of $3,377 USD, a level that represents the most recent significant peak and would need to be convincingly surpassed to confirm the bullish momentum.

Should gold successfully clear this initial hurdle, the next logical target emerges at the psychologically important $3,400 USD level. This round number often acts as both support and resistance in precious metals trading, and its conquest would likely attract additional momentum-based buying from algorithmic trading systems and technical followers.

Beyond $3,400, USD the technical roadmap points toward the June peak of $3,451.30 USD, a level that marked a significant high earlier in the year before gold entered its current consolidation phase. The recapture of this level would represent a meaningful expansion of gold’s recent trading range and could set the stage for an assault on the ultimate prize: the all-time high of $3,500 established during the precious metal’s spectacular rally earlier this year.

The Bearish Risk Scenario, while considered less probable given the ascending triangle pattern, cannot be dismissed. A breakdown below the confluence of technical support levels could trigger a more significant correction in gold prices. The first major concern would be a breach of the 50-day moving average, which currently aligns closely with the ascending trendline support. Such a breakdown would not only violate the triangle pattern but also call into question the intermediate-term uptrend that has been in place since February.

In the event of such a breakdown, technical analysts have identified initial downside targets at $3,310, corresponding to the July 17 low, and $3,283, which matches the July 9 low. These levels would represent significant pullbacks from current prices and could attract opportunistic buyers looking to add exposure at more favorable levels. However, a more serious concern would emerge if selling pressure extends to the major support zone around $3,250, which would indicate a more fundamental shift in market sentiment.

Technical Analysis: The Ascending Triangle Formation

Gold’s recent price action has created a textbook example of an ascending triangle pattern, one of the most closely watched formations in technical analysis. The precious metal has been trading within a tightening range bounded by two key technical levels that have repeatedly tested traders’ patience and market participants’ resolve. 

The upper boundary of this consolidation pattern is defined by horizontal resistance at the $3,360 level, a price point that has consistently capped upward movements and turned back multiple rally attempts. This resistance level has proven particularly stubborn, with gold futures and spot prices encountering selling pressure each time they approach this psychological and technical barrier. The repeated failures to break decisively above $3,360 have created a well-defined ceiling that technical analysts are watching closely for signs of either continuation or breakdown.

Conversely, the lower boundary of the triangle is formed by an uptrend support line that extends back to the February 28 low. This ascending support has demonstrated remarkable resilience, successfully defending against six separate tests of its integrity, including a notable challenge that occurred just last Thursday. The ability of this trendline to hold against repeated downside pressure suggests underlying strength in gold’s long-term upward trajectory, even as short-term price action remains constrained.

The significance of this ascending triangle cannot be overstated. Unlike symmetrical triangles, which suggest uncertainty about future direction, ascending triangles typically carry a bullish bias. The pattern suggests that while sellers are consistently defending a specific price level (the horizontal resistance), buyers are becoming increasingly aggressive at progressively higher prices (the ascending support). This dynamic often resolves in favor of the bulls, particularly when other fundamental factors align with the technical setup.

Beyond the price pattern itself, momentum indicators are beginning to show signs of gradual improvement that could support an eventual upside breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most widely followed momentum oscillators, has been trending slowly upward, suggesting that buying pressure is beginning to outweigh selling pressure despite the sideways price action.

Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has shown a mild bullish bias, with the signal line relationship gradually trending into positive territory. While neither indicator provides definitive confirmation of an imminent breakout, the subtle improvement in momentum characteristics suggests that the technical foundation for higher prices may be strengthening.

However, experienced traders and analysts emphasize the importance of maintaining objectivity in the face of these potentially positive signals. The current technical setup, while showing a marginal preference for upside resolution, does not guarantee that outcome. Market participants are advised to remain open-minded about potential scenarios and to avoid the common trap of confirmation bias that can cloud judgment during periods of consolidation.

CIBC’s Upgraded Forecast: From Conservative to Ambitious

The technical consolidation in gold prices has not dampened the enthusiasm of institutional analysts, with CIBC Capital Markets emerging as one of the most bullish major banks in terms of precious metals forecasting. Led by analyst Anita Soni, CIBC’s research team has significantly elevated their price expectations for gold, reflecting what they describe as “a banquet of uncertainty around the world” that continues to boost the appeal of alternative reserve assets.

The bank’s current forecast represents a dramatic revision from their previous expectations established just months ago. In December 2023, Soni’s team predicted gold prices would average $2,800 per ounce for 2024, a target that has been not only reached but substantially exceeded as gold has climbed approximately 28% year-to-date. The precious metal set a fresh record trading high at about $3,500 per ounce in late April before pulling back to current levels in the $3,300-range.

CIBC now expects bullion to average $3,600 per ounce in the second half of 2025, representing approximately a 3% gain above April’s record peak of $3,500. This upward revision significantly exceeds their earlier conservative estimates and reflects the bank’s assessment that the fundamental drivers supporting gold’s bull market remain not only intact but potentially strengthening.

The forecast extends beyond 2025, with CIBC maintaining their $3,600 average price expectation through 2026. This sustained optimism suggests that the bank views the current drivers of gold demand as structural rather than cyclical factors. Only in 2027 does CIBC anticipate some moderation, with their forecast calling for prices to average approximately $3,300 per ounce, followed by a further decline to around $3,000 in 2028.